--- title: "Global growth, oil and the Iran conflict" description: "Revisiting the July 2026 note: slower global growth and the role of energy prices for households and businesses." url: "https://necker-finance.com/en/research/global-growth-oil-and-the-iran-conflict/" lang: "en" alternate: "https://necker-finance.com/fr/publications/croissance-mondiale-petrole-conflit-iranien/ (fr)" published: "2026-07-29" site: "Necker Finance Mauritius" --- # Global growth, oil and the Iran conflict Revisiting the July 2026 note: slower global growth and the role of energy prices for households and businesses. Market note Published by **Necker Finance** Macro perspective 29 July 2026 1 min read In its note of 29 July 2026, Necker Finance discussed the implications of the Iran conflict for the global economy and energy markets. [S&P Global’s analysis of PMI surveys, published on 8 July 2026](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/07/global-growth-hits-highest-since-february-amid-strengthening-service-sector-expansion), indicated global GDP growth of approximately 2.5% at an annualised rate in the second quarter, compared with approximately 3% at the start of the year. This is an estimate derived from business surveys, not an official national accounts figure. Necker Finance’s note also discussed the possibility that lower oil prices could ease pressure on households and improve business confidence. This remained a forecast, dependent in particular on the course of the conflict and energy supply. The [original LinkedIn post](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7488202440396308481/) links to Thierry Carlot’s Macroeconomic Chronicle. ![Necker Finance card introducing Thierry Carlot, with 41 years of expertise in banking and asset management, including leadership roles at Banque Indosuez, Chase Manhattan Bank and Republic National Bank New York](https://necker-finance.com/media/insights/thierry-carlot-800.webp) [View the original on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7488202440396308481/) Important information This material is provided for general information and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer. Market conditions, forecasts and the relevance of any observation can change. Any investment decision should be assessed against the investor’s own objectives and circumstances. ## Further reading Analysis 17 Aug 2026 Precious metals: what lies beneath the volatility Gold does not always behave like a safe haven in the first phase of a geopolitical shock. What matters more is what happens underneath the volatility. Market note Read the article (https://necker-finance.com/en/research/precious-metals-beneath-the-volatility/) Analysis 28 Apr 2026 Can AI predict financial markets? Machine intelligence can widen the field of vision. Objectives, context and accountability still belong to people. Article Read the article (https://necker-finance.com/en/research/can-ai-predict-financial-markets/) [All publications](https://necker-finance.com/en/research/) --- Necker Finance · Regulated by the [Financial Services Commission](https://www.fscmauritius.org/), Mauritius · Licence C114013750.